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The Fifty-Year Economic Outlook

by Duane "DJ" Sprague

Since December of 2000, we have seen a slew of high-tech stock failures, dot-com crashes, and most recently, the 9/11 disaster. All of these current events have had a negative impact on Wall Street, employment, consumer confidence, and economic growth in general.

However, all of it combined are only a small blip on the big economic radar screen. In fact, the very best of economic times are yet to come. So hold on, and prepare yourself for the ten-year ride of your life, on an economic crest that will begin to crash in 2014. We’ll hit rock bottom in 2019 after a serious five year depression (1929 style), and then make a slow, but steady climb skyward again, reaching an all time economic high until 2050. And after that? Hey it’s our kids problem.

This crystal ball prediction comes from none other, than Harry Dent himself. Dent is a famous California Economist, Harvard MBA graduate, and author of “The Great Boom Ahead”, and “The Roaring 2000s.”

Dent predicted the economic boom of the late 1990s ten years before it happened, while the rest of the economic forecasters scoffed at his predictions. Dent basses his economic forecasts on the size of the adult population, and their peak spending years.

Baby boomers as we know them, were born in three waves: 1940's, 1950's, and 1960's. And each of these waves, will reach their peak spending by the time they reach 47 to 49 years of age. As each wave reaches toward 35 to 49 years of age, with 40-50 being the most prime, they will enter a period of earning and spending the largest amount of capital in their careers.

The first wave, born in the 40's reached their peak spending years beginning in 1992. And they will be followed by the second and third wave, who will reach their peak spending years by 2014. Supported by historical data from the Standard and Poor 500, and the Department of Labor, Dent has proven his formula to be correct from a historical perspective as well.


According to Stephen W. Blair, senior vice-president of John Hancock Mutual Funds, “As the single most powerful economic force ever to move through any society in the history of the world moves into its peak spending years, U.S. investors will benefit from the strongest, most sustained, most powerful bull markets in the history of the world.” We certainly have seen that, and will continue to do so.

But wait, what about all the current disasters and problems? They are only a temporary speed bump on the on-ramp to the super economy highway. According to historical data on the DOW, 9/11 type disasters are only short-lived. Let’s look at the data:

Historical DOW fluctuations in reaction to current events:

Event Initial Reaction 6 Months After
Pearl Harbor
-6.5%
-9.6%
Korean War
-12%
19.2%
Cuban Missile Crisis
-9.4%
28.7%
U.S. Bombing of Cambodia
-14.4%
20.7%
U.S. Invasion of Panama
-1.9%
8%
Gulf War
-4.3%
18.7%
1993 World Trade Center Bomb
-.5%
8%


The point, is to keep things in perspective. We are not in a 50-yard dash, but in a cross country 20k marathon. And the first sign of an incline, or a slow-down, does not signal defeat. Keep the big picture, and the long-term focus in mind. There are no real short-term fixes, or lasting short-term disaster. As the entire economic cycle comes down to the raw power of volume spending. It’s people, their money, and their ability to spend it that make the economy work.

According to Dent, “Today the goal of business should be to get in front of the inevitable baby boom spending wave by communicating and connecting with them through electronic media with which this economic force grew into adulthood and more than ever, continues to enjoy. Radio and broadcast television are the main connections to this powerful generation.”

So there you have it. Stay positive, stay focused, and use the electronic media to communicate, and connect with an economic super power, the likes of which the world has never seen before. And may God continue to smile upon us, and to bless this greatest of land, this place we call America.

Duane Sprague is president of Dunning Sprague Marketing & Advertising, located in Foothill Ranch California. Duane has written over 60 published articles and 3 books on marketing and advertising, and is a national speaker. He can be reached at 888-264-1963 ext. 1618. Or on the web at www.dunningsprague.com. Email: dsprague@dunningsprague.com


Duane is available to conduct informative seminars on the following topics:

  • Effective database marketing
  • Media planning and buying for maximum results at reduced rates
  • Effective marketing tips and strategies
  • The 10 year economic outlook for the automotive industry
  • Marketing to the sub-prime buyer
  • Conducting local market research for improved used car inventory and marketing decisions
  • Reducing your used car acquisition costs by 40-60%

    Contact:
    Phone (888) 265-1963

 

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