The Fifty-Year Economic Outlook
by Duane "DJ" Sprague
Since December of 2000, we have seen a slew of high-tech stock
failures, dot-com crashes, and most recently, the 9/11 disaster.
All of these current events have had a negative impact on Wall
Street, employment, consumer confidence, and economic growth in
general.
However, all of it combined are only a small blip on the big economic
radar screen. In fact, the very best of economic times are yet
to come. So hold on, and prepare yourself for the ten-year ride
of your life, on an economic crest that will begin to crash in
2014. We’ll hit rock bottom in 2019 after a serious five
year depression (1929 style), and then make a slow, but steady
climb skyward again, reaching an all time economic high until 2050.
And after that? Hey it’s our kids problem.
This crystal ball prediction comes from none other, than Harry
Dent himself. Dent is a famous California Economist, Harvard MBA
graduate, and author of “The Great Boom Ahead”, and “The
Roaring 2000s.”
Dent predicted the economic boom of the late 1990s ten years before
it happened, while the rest of the economic forecasters scoffed
at his predictions. Dent basses his economic forecasts on the size
of the adult population, and their peak spending years.
Baby boomers as we know them, were born in three waves: 1940's,
1950's, and 1960's. And each of these waves, will reach their peak
spending by the time they reach 47 to 49 years of age. As each
wave reaches toward 35 to 49 years of age, with 40-50 being the
most prime, they will enter a period of earning and spending the
largest amount of capital in their careers.
The first wave, born in the 40's reached their peak spending years
beginning in 1992. And they will be followed by the second and
third wave, who will reach their peak spending years by 2014. Supported
by historical data from the Standard and Poor 500, and the Department
of Labor, Dent has proven his formula to be correct from a historical
perspective as well.
According to Stephen W. Blair, senior vice-president of John Hancock
Mutual Funds, “As the single most powerful economic force
ever to move through any society in the history of the world
moves into its peak spending years, U.S. investors will benefit
from the strongest, most sustained, most powerful bull markets
in the history of the world.” We certainly have seen that,
and will continue to do so.
But wait, what about all the current disasters and problems? They
are only a temporary speed bump on the on-ramp to the super economy
highway. According to historical data on the DOW, 9/11 type disasters
are only short-lived. Let’s look at the data:
Historical DOW fluctuations in reaction to current events:
| Event |
Initial Reaction |
6 Months After |
| Pearl Harbor |
-6.5% |
-9.6% |
| Korean War |
-12% |
19.2% |
| Cuban Missile Crisis |
-9.4% |
28.7% |
| U.S. Bombing of Cambodia |
-14.4% |
20.7% |
| U.S. Invasion of Panama |
-1.9% |
8% |
| Gulf War |
-4.3% |
18.7% |
| 1993 World Trade Center Bomb |
-.5% |
8% |
The point, is to keep things in perspective. We are not in a 50-yard
dash, but in a cross country 20k marathon. And the first sign
of an incline, or a slow-down, does not signal defeat. Keep the
big picture, and the long-term focus in mind. There are no real
short-term fixes, or lasting short-term disaster. As the entire
economic cycle comes down to the raw power of volume spending.
It’s people, their money, and their ability to spend it
that make the economy work.
According to Dent, “Today the goal of business should be
to get in front of the inevitable baby boom spending wave by communicating
and connecting with them through electronic media with which this
economic force grew into adulthood and more than ever, continues
to enjoy. Radio and broadcast television are the main connections
to this powerful generation.”
So there you have it. Stay positive, stay focused, and use the
electronic media to communicate, and connect with an economic super
power, the likes of which the world has never seen before. And
may God continue to smile upon us, and to bless this greatest of
land, this place we call America.
Duane Sprague is president of Dunning Sprague Marketing & Advertising,
located in Foothill Ranch California. Duane has written over
60 published articles and 3 books on marketing and advertising,
and
is a national speaker. He can be reached at 888-264-1963 ext.
1618. Or on the web at www.dunningsprague.com. Email: dsprague@dunningsprague.com 
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Duane
is available to conduct informative seminars on the following
topics:
- Effective
database marketing
- Media
planning and buying for maximum results at reduced rates
- Effective
marketing tips and strategies
- The
10 year economic outlook for the automotive industry
- Marketing
to the sub-prime buyer
- Conducting
local market research for improved used car inventory
and marketing decisions
- Reducing
your used car acquisition costs by 40-60%
Contact:
Phone (888) 265-1963
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